Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)'s campaign for the Presidency has thus far been staked entirely on his support for the war in Iraq. Rarely has a mainstream candidate for the Leader of the Free World been so intimately wedded to one singular policy like McCain is with the situation in Iraq. In no uncertain terms, McCain's bid is inextricably linked to the conflict, and his fate hinges on whether or not he can convince the electorate that, in his own words, a "reasonable chance" for success still exists.
Rhetorically, McCain espouses a grandiose, often hyperbolic view of Iraq, and the consequences for the United States and our allies were we to "surrender" the country to "Al-Qaeda and other extremists". In no uncertain terms, the fate of Western civilization is predicated upon "victory" (what that entails remains nebulous) in Iraq. In fact, judging by McCain's speeches, one would think a surreal, almost Wilsonian idealism pervades the Senator's thought processes.
However, the idealism he espouses in regard to the future of Iraq, and the cataclysmic implications were the United States to abandon a pursuit of democracy there, are in stark contrast to his political maneuvering throughout the 2008 campaign. Every one of his decisions, from switching his position to favor the Bush tax cuts, to actively courting "agents of intolerance" like John Hagee and Rod Parsley, resound with the philosophy of realpolitik. In making a concerted effort to pander to the Republican base, in stark contrast to his 2000 campaign, McCain has embraced a form of political realism that even Henry Kissinger would appreciate.
Given this, it's especially puzzling that McCain adopts an idealistic stance when discussing in Iraq. In fact, the puzzle can only be solved if you wade through McCain's guise of altruism to find his real reasons for supporting the Iraq War. And those, as they will be explained below, align perfectly with the realpolitik he has advocated throughout his campaign.
The 5 Real Reasons John McCain Supports the Iraq War:
1. Republicans Have No Other Issues: According to Gallup and Rasmussen Reports polling data, voters favor the Democrats on all the domestic issues that matter, from the economy to health care reform. More over, the legacy of the 2006 Congressional Elections, which were largely a referendum on widespread Republican corruption and casuistry, bare not helpful to McCain's campaign. After all, having a litany of lobbyists run your campaign is not exactly the way to ensure voters that you are upholding the "Maverick" image.
This chasm in credibility and electoral legitimacy between the parties is especially acute after the disastrous stewardship of the Bush administration the last 8 years.
Because of this, McCain has no choice but to rely on what is generally a Republican strength: national security. Even though their lead has been substantially diminished the since the Iraq invasion 5 years ago, McCain knows that he will be obliterated by Obama on any domestic issue, and thus must do all he can to keep the race singularly focused on the war, even if that particular issue draws the ire of voters.
2. McCain's "Vietnam Syndrome": As decorous as Senator McCain's service in Vietnam was, most citizens forget that because he was imprisoned in the Hanoi Hilton for 5 years, McCain was largely oblivious to the disillusionment of the unformed military over the civilian leadership in undertaking the war.
As the New York Times Magazine astutely pointed out this week, McCain's experience in Vietnam, or lack thereof, tends to make his judgement on Iraq highly idealistic. At the very least, McCain has thus far been rendered impervious to just how deep the cleavage public impact can forge in a civilian/military alliance. Unlike his fellow Senators Chuck Hagel and John Warner, who were placed in the midst of the maelstrom as the situation in Vietnam severely deteriorated, and thus had their perception of the war irrevocably altered, McCain cannot fully comprehend the futility of interfering in foreign wars without a sufficient motive, a situation that occurred in Vietnam which is now replicating itself in Iraq. Hegel and Warner saw first hand the utter arrogance, divisiveness and incompetence with which Robert McNamara ran the Vietnam War, McCain simply read about it in a few history texts.
More over, also as the NYT magazine details, McCain is a member of a vocal minority who believe that the Vietnam war could have been won had public opinion not turned on the conflict after the Tet Offensive. As a result, McCain tends to employ a foreign policy strategy that eschews the perception of the public and the media, or if he doesn't ignore their thoughts, he instead takes an adversarial approach designed to demonize "liberal" media voices, no matter how spot on that perception might be.
In two different ways, the specter of Vietnam greatly guides his thinking on Iraq, much more so than anything he might say about altruism in his speeches.
3. Amongst McCain's Resume and "Expertise", Defense/National Security is all He can fall back on: Descended from 3 generations of Naval Admirals, renowned as a hero (and rightfully so) for his ability to withstand 5 years of brutal torture, a man who refused to leave the deplorable conditions of North Vietnam until his fellow soldiers were released: Needless to say, John McCain has an impressive background in terms of military affairs.
However, that pedigree is about all he has to hang his hat on in this Presidential race. Well, let me not be too critical here: After all, if the contest between McCain and Obama turns into who has the most credibility on campaign finance reform (/sarcasm)
Even a cursory examination of his positions on issues aside from military affairs reveals how vulnerable he will be should Senator Obama make them the centerpiece of his campaign. McCain is admittedly a neophyte about the economy, a position unlikely to benefit him in the midst of a torrid recession. Thus far, his only solution to curtail the recession is to extent the Bush tax cuts, a policy which helped to instigate the struggles of working class people that thus spurned the downturn in the first place. Just weeks ago, his proposed health care plan was widely discredited when Elizabeth Edwards would even cover his own medical needs.
As a result, McCain realizes that he would be trounced by either Senator Obama or Clinton on a myriad of issues, namely. In addition, unfortunately for McCain, Presidential elections rarely crystallize around a single hot-button issue, as he will attempt to do by having national security concerns monopolize the headlines.
Recent history offers McCain some repose though. In 2004, Republicans largely ran on their readiness and willingness to pursue the War on Terror more effectively than their counterparts in the Democratic party. However, attempting to replicate that success in this election will be difficult, as the economic climate has deteriorated significantly in the last 4 years.
4. We need Iraq's Oil, But Admitting that Is Impossible: No other subject in American political life has been as consistently shrouded in misleading and deceptive rhetoric as the motives behind our energy policy. The phenomenon of pleading "the spread of democracy" and the ideals of liberation and freedom for disenfranchised Muslims as a means to obfuscate the real motives behind our Middle East policy didn't start with John McCain, but he sure as hell isn't deviating from the script.
With the price of gas skyrocketing, Iraq's oil reserves, which are believed to be the 2nd largest on Earth behind Saudia Arabia, are critical to United States' strategic interests in the Middle East. Control of Iraq's black gold serves McCain as he attempts to tamp down domestic unrest over $4.00 gallons of gas. More over, as the United States further cedes control of energy pricing to OPEC, and specifically, McCain's sworn enemy Iran, controlling Iraqi oil allows for at least some bulwark against price controls and stagnant production that OPEC has thus far employed as a means to keep oil prices astronomically high.
Unfortunately for McCain, the real motives behind energy policy can never be publicly espoused. As part of a Republican myth that all American foreign intervention is motivated solely by meritorious pursuits, the true motives behind invading Iraq will be suppressed or denied. That said, the facts break through the fluffy rhetoric and as a result, one can understand why McCain would not want to cede control of Iraqi oil to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and his grinning bosom buddies in the Iranian government.
5. A Focus on Iraq Keeps the Republican Base on His Side: Iraq is one of the few issues that garner John McCain enthusiastic support from the Republican base. If he is to prevail in November, turning out the base is a sine qua non, no matter how well McCain polls with independents. In order to turn out said base, McCain must keep them focused on Iraq because they consider him an apostate on other issues like gay marriage and campaign finance reform. More over, if the election boils down to a question of who can steward the economy more deftly, the base will likely desert McCain. Though he is now an avowed supporter of the Bush Tax Cuts, he wasn't back in 2000, and fiscal conservatives have a long memory, and will likely fail to turn out if they doubt he's genuine about continuing the Bush economic legacy.
If either fiscal or social conservatives abandon him, as they likely would if they were thinking about McCain's maverick stances on Reproductive Rights or Tax Policy, swing states will turn to the Democratic column, and McCain will lose the election. As a result, McCain must bank on conservatives remembering his steadfast support for a continuation of President Bush's Iraq policy, no matter how odious that may be to a large portion of voters.
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Because of this quintet of reasons, McCain now must endorse the "surge" and the overarching Bush doctrine in Iraq. In a perverse paradox, to have a chance to win, McCain must increase the fervor for which he advocates the policy irrespective of how unpopular it becomes with the public.
What's important to understand is that in the end, John McCain fights for the continuation of the current Iraq policy, not because he believes that it will save Iraqi lives, but rather because it will preserve his political life.
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