Bloomberg Makes His Move

Originally, the plan was to spend this entry praising the United States for its' wise decision to resume aid, after an 18 month moratorium, to the embattled Palestinian people, trapped in an internecine civil war in their own territory. This decision is deserving of praise, both for humanitarian and strategic reasons. More over, it's the first indication that the Bush Administration has fundamentally altered it's strategy towards intervention in the Middle East. Instead of bombing them into oblivion and inflaming long simmering sectarian tensions (see Iraq, War In", as has been the hallmark of this administration heretofore, this move indicates they may truly be ready to win the "hearts and minds" of the Islamic world. Because of those aforementioned reasons, this decision deserves a lengthy analysis.

However, today is not that particular day, as news concerning the gradually approaching 2008 Presidential Elections (/sarcasm) stormed to the front of the headlines. For those of you unaware, Michael Bloomberg, the immensely popular mayor of New York City, and namesake to the gargantuan media empire, has dropped his affiliation with the Republican Party, and decided to become classified as an independent. This act, in and of itself, is hardly significant. In fact, Bloomberg himself switched from Democrat to Republican in advance of his 2001 mayoral candidacy in the Big Apple. That said, the implications of his decision, particularly vis a vis the upcoming election for the 2008 presidential election are enormous.

First of all, by de-affiliating himself with the Republican Party, and in the process, not reverting back to his ties with the Democratic party, Bloomberg has therefore allowed himself to bypass the grueling primary process a mere 7 months away. This decision thus affords him the luxury of abstaining from participation in the grueling Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary, where often times a campaign's fate can be determined simply by their showing in those two polls. Furthermore, while all of the candidates from each party systematically attack and discredit each other, Bloomberg remains smugly above the fray.

Lastly, and most importantly, by remaining independent of the rigid national party structures, which obviously possess authority over the entire electoral process for their respective candidates, the mayor can now select the most opportune moment to enter the race. As only the candidates with unlimited wealth can afford to do, Bloomberg can throw his name into the race, after he has given ample thought to who the nominees from each party will be, and how he will size up against them. Because of his incalculable personal wealth and connections, he is unencumbered by the constraints of entering the race so late.

I suppose there is one "caveat" to all of this hullabaloo I'm making about the ramifications of Bloomberg's de-affiliation from any of the two main parties: the public remarks of Mr. Bloomberg himself. Not more than a matter of minutes, during his press conference today, after announcing his plan to relinquish membership in the Republican party, did the mayor reiterate his desire as the head man in NYC for the next 952 some odd days. Despite the words, Mr. Bloomberg's actions (becoming independent) and his facial expression while offering the aforementioned statement about his nascent desire to stay in NYC (a shit eating grin worthy of Charlie Sheen after a night on Sunset with a few friends of Heidi Fleiss), offer prescient insight into his future goals. As a man succeeded in managing both a worldwide media conglomerate and the world's largest, most idiosyncratic and difficult city, his aspirations are so high that they are only satisfied by the apex of political power: the U.S. Presidency.

Despite this evidence, there will likely still be a formidable contingent who really take the mayor's statements at face value. Clearly, the people who adhere to the mayor's pledge to remain holed up in his Manhattan office through 2009, are the type who believe that Lindsey Lohan's 21st birthday party will consist merely of a scavenger hunt and glasses brimming with Shirley Temples. Rest assured though, Bloomberg, being the calculating, deliberative man that he has proven to be. would not take the risks of de-affiliation (loss of support from Party bosses in each state, denied access to the second to none GOP grassroots efforts) without eventually embracing the foremost benefits (freedom from the stringent primary schedule, the ability to enter the race whenever he damn well pleases.)

In essence, Bloomberg, even if he enters the race at the eleventh hour (which in this case would refer to a period after the respective nominees have been chosen), non withstanding retains two distinct advantages over his opponent, no matter their chosen political party:

1. Money, even copious, unfathomable amounts of cash to the lay person, is truly no deterrent to the mayor's hypothetical candidacy. Sure, the nominees from each of the two major parties' will possess a daunting war chest, but Bloomberg's portfolio renders that almost a pittance. Bloomberg's campaign will be furnished financially entirely from his own personal bankroll.

This is advantageous for two reasons: First of all, his candidacy will be entirely bereft of influence from powerful, though potentially politically damaging constituencies like big-business and influential lobbyists. Just ask Hillary Clinton; just this week, she disclosed a sale of her stocks in Pharmaceutical behemoths like Pfizer and GSK, at a substantial loss in profit, in hopes of pacifying any questions about conflict of interest. With disgust for corruption weighing heavily on voters decisions, funding a presidential campaign entirely with monies out of his own pocket is a decided advantage over potential general-election opponents like Obama or Giuliani.

Secondly, with unprecedented, astounding amounts of cash likely to be spent by each major candidate in 2008, the financial security solely possessed by Bloomberg looms large. As John McCain has ruefully learned, anemic fund-raising can have a disastrous effect on a campaign, even more than a year before the primary.

For one, when relying upon a litany of individual donors to buttress your war chest, valuable time is lost when one is pleading for another $2,100 instead of out delivering a stump speech to an enthusiastic crowd in Concord or Des Moines. Bloomberg, given his willingness to spend $500 million of his own cash on the campaign, will run the most efficient operation, the one devoid of the distractions a thin wallet will inevitably present to the other candidates.

In addition, a paucity of available funds often sends distress signals out to supporters, the press and undecided voters. In 2004, John Kerry's disclosure that he was forced to mortgage his Beacon Hill residence in order to inject ample funds into his run certainly did not insinuate positives about the vitality of his campaign. More recently, Sen. McCain was absolutely blasted in the media for his anemic showing during the first quarter 2007 fundraising period. $500 million, as Bloomberg brings to the table, gives a candidate immunity from the perceptions that the "support" e.g. the money, an essential for 2008, is anything but robust.

2. Bloomberg's decision to extract himself from the hectic, exhausting and potentially debilitating party primary process is a strategic coup. The complexion of the body politic has become increasingly divergent, and therefore, hazardous, from primary to general election in recent years. Particularly for Republicans, as Bloomberg was a mere 48 hours ago, maintaining a consistent position from the primaries to the general election is highly problematic. Because those who tend to vote in Republican primaries are social conservatives, and therefore far to the right from the average person, who often cast their ballot solely on single issues like abortion rights or same-sex marriage, candidates are habitually forced to alter their platforms to accommodate voters. More often than not, candidates came across as obsequious, artificial charlatans. The 2008 election has already brought plenty of insidious pandering, courtesy of the Republican front-runners.

From Mitt Romney masquerading as Yosemite Sam in an attempt to obfuscate his previous support for gun control, to John McCain attempting to portray himself as a Bush lackey, Republicans seem to have little shame in shifting as far to the right as conceivable, no matter how centrist the entire electorate may be. Although, an impartial observer can't really blame them. One can only preach those who will cast ballots for the next approaching election. Therein lies the Catch 22 of the American electoral process: candidates, by nature of essentially needing to win two separate elections, which are often times decided on fundamentally contradictory issues, are pushed into situations where they must accentuate long forgotten aspects of their political ideology, ignore their views prior to running for president, or even offer downright falsehoods as a means to garnering ample votes in both the primary and general elections. Luckily for Bloomberg, whose liberalism on social issues like gay marriage and abortion make Rudy Giuliani look like Jerry Falwell, is impervious to the contrived, politically dangerous nature of the primary election cycle.

Rather, Bloomberg can simply run on the platform that he utilized in previous successful campaigns. His appeal, as a manager, who conforms to the majority of Americans on both social issues and economic policy, will never be questioned in a hypothetical general election press conference by a skeptical reporter who heard him offer an entirely different contention during the primaries.

Certainly, Bloomberg's dramatic announcement will inject some life, at least temporarily, into this relatively moribund stage in the 2008 election cycle. You know journalists are clamoring for substantive news when the main stories circulating about the 2008 campaign center around Rudy Guiliani hiring Pablo Escobar to run his South Carolina campaign, and Hillary Clinton's Stanislivsky-inspire performance as Tony Soprano in her campaign spoof. At least for the next few days, Bloomberg provides fodder for those pundits. However, his announcement likely will engender long standing changes in the presidential election. Unless his very public decision to shun his Republican ties, accompanied by a excoriation of the culture pervading D.C. politics today, is merely a symbolic gesture designed to garner publicity, his decision has long-standing implications for the future.